Many Asian asset management companies, hedge funds and individual investors are dumping gold. Zhang Ming revealed. And he found that some strange phenomena were hidden in the selling tide. For example, when the price of gold was approaching certain key prices, there were always a batch of large orders that accurately Precious metals market nickelbroke the price support line. His first feeling is that some institutions are using black pool trading to lock in short-selling warehouse receipts at certain key gold prices, and then quickly report them to the exchange when the price approaches, thereby intensifying the wave of gold selling.
Speaking of sorrow for Fu Xinci. Value preservation is value preservation, and speculation is speculation! The positioning must be accurate. Speculation is not a derogatory term. Speculation is also divided into fundamental speculation and technical speculation. We cannot use fundamental analysis as the micro reason for the rise and fall every day. Fundamental speculation can only tell us whether this path is right, and technical analysis is not as precise as a gambler to tell us the direction. Technical analysis is more important. What tells us more is a kind of trading discipline. It is best not to confuse the two.
FrankLesh said that the gold price was supported at $1,600 per ounce, and when the price of gold reached $1,600 per ounce, the area was considered support. When the price of gold is far away from the support area, a few investors buy.
However, judging from the recent lightening of gold ETF positions, some funds still seem to have some doubts about the depreciation of the dollar in the market outlook. Although the overall weakness of the U.S. dollar has not changed, the increase in interest rates in some countries and the relative silence of the U.S. precisely show that the U.S. has less inflationary pressures, and the short-term depreciation of the U.S. dollar cannot shake the foundation of its commodity-priced currency. Gu Haipeng pointed out: The spread of austerity policies in economies outside the United States is bad for the US dollar in the short term, but it is good in the long run. The dominance of the US dollar will still be maintained, otherwise the competition in the foreign exchange market will evolve into political competition.
The BlackRock World Gold Fund team stated in early June that the current interest rate environment is conducive to the trend of gold, and issues such as inflation and the euro zone debt crisis have also attracted investment and buying to gold. The bullish factors supporting the trend of precious metals have not changed. The profits of gold producers will rise as the price of gold rises. It is expected that the recent rebound in gold stocks should continue while stock prices are still low, and the long-term trend is promising.
The minutes of the much-watched Fed’s July monetary policy meeting were released as scheduled at 2 a.m. Beijing time on the 22nd. The minutes of this meeting are for the detailed explanation of the July Monetary Policy Meeting of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee held at the end of last month. It will discuss and study the current operation of the world's largest economy, the risks it faces, and the ways to deal with it in the future. In addition, as the market generally expects that the Fed may begin to reduce bond purchases in September, it will gradually withdraw from quantitative easing. Therefore, the last minutes before September received extremely high attention from all parties in the market. If the Fed’s attitude is hawkish, the US dollar will be greatly boosted. On the contrary, gold and non-US currencies will maintain an upward pattern. After the announcement at 2 o'clock Beijing time, gold showed a trend of falling first and then rising. The minutes show that some members of the Federal Reserve still hold different views on the timetable for withdrawing from QE. However, the general direction of QE has not changed, and the tone of reducing quantitative easing before the end of this year and ending quantitative easing around the middle of next year is still maintained. Overall, the minutes tend to be slightly reduced. The market reacted immediately and the dollar rose 0.2% against the yen. Gold fell to near the US time low of $1362. But the market quickly realized that according to the minutes, the Fed seemed more hopeful to draw conclusions about scale reduction based on the performance of future economic data. Moreover, the line between the lines also reflects that compared with earlier times, Fed officials' views on the economic outlook have not improved, but have become slightly pessimistic. Subsequently, gold rose rapidly from a low point, and once touched an intraday high near 1379, and finally basically stabilized with the overnight close. Asian markets were generally lower on Thursday affected by the Fed's minutes. MIAPJ0000PUS fell 0.9% to a 6-week low. The South Korean stock market fell about 1%. The Nikkei 225 fell 1.1%. The Australian market is also affected. Its main stock index fell 1.3%, and the Australian dollar againsPrecious metals market nickelt the US dollar fell 100 basis points from yesterday’s opening to close at 0.8970. The current price of gold is above 1360, which is the lower edge of the consolidation range that occurred during the previous decline. Since the Fed has not made special care for QE in every direction, gold may fluctuate slightly in this range in the near future. The range is 1350-1385 US dollars. According to the quality of the economic data of major economies, investors can appropriately sell high and buy low within the range. After jumping out of the range of shocks, take advantage of the trend. The upper resistance is 1385/1400/1420.
In addition, the expansion of the jewelry retail network has slowed down significantly, and the amount of inventory built has also decreased, which has further magnified the impact of this factor on demand. At the same time, as jewelers play an important role in selling small-size gold bars and coins, the demand for gold bars and coins has also been negatively affected.
On the 27th, Germany and France expressed in different ways that they would actively participate in the rescue of Greece. The leading economies in the Eurozone, Germany, France and other countries have outstanding advantages over other countries, and the prospects for economic recovery are optimistic. In view of this, despite the Greek debt problems, the European Central Bank President and members of the Executive Council have successively issued remarks suggesting their intention to raise interest rates at the July policy meeting. This will increase expectations of the European Central Bank's interest rate hike in July.
However, investors should be aware that since most of the gold price increase in recent years has been driven by investment demand, if the global liquidity suddenly decreases, that is, the market will experience a credit crunch, which will lead to the outflow of funds from the gold market, which may cause a short-term and substantial increase in gold. Vomit. Kong Shuyan said.